Article about Spanish election prognosis: scroll down. Thank you for voting! Results of March 2014 EU-presidential poll here.
In less than 50 days we will know exactly about the results of the European Parliament election 2014 #EP2014. Before this we want to introduce you the most important parties and their topical situation.
Different from France, UK or Italy the Spanish democracy escaped populist parties although the financial crises since 2011 is very harsh and there is an enormous number of unemployed people. Some analysts assume that the reason behind this is the Franco-dictatorship, which was abolished just 40 years ago.
The two big parties: PP and PSOE – suffering under financial crises
The most popular party in Spain is still the ruling centre-right, christian-democratic party PP which will win 31 per cent (-11.7) of the votes in the European election (twittprognosis poll). The party is allied with pro-austerity EPP, which is the European party of Merkel’s CDU or Berlusconi’s FI. Leading candidate is Jean-Claude Juncker from Luxembourg. After the party started ruling under Rajoy in 2011, the party lost around 15 per cent. Seats for EPP from Spain: 17 (-6).
Since the financial crises hit Spain while social-democratic-socialist PSOE was in power, the party is still suffering under poor results. 29.5 (-9.8) of the Spanish people would vote for the social-democratic-socialist party. It would be the weakest result for this party in European elections ever. The party is allied with European parties like British Labour or Hollande’s PS. Their common European party is PES under leading candidate Martin Schulz. Seats for PES from Spain: 17 (-4).
Winner of protest, the middle-powers: IU and UPyD
The leftist-socialist IU got 3.8 per cent in the 2009 election. This time they will not just double their results: 12.0 per cent will vote for IU (twittprongosis poll). Under leading candidate Alexis Tsipras and his European party EL, the party is allied with GAUCHE from France and SYRIZA in Greece. Seats for EL from Spain: 7 (+5).
Social-liberal party UPyD does not have an European partner organization. 7.5 per cent (+4.6) of the Spanish valid voters want to vote for this party in the upcoming European election. It would be the best election result for this party, which was founded in 2007. Seats for Independent from Spain: 4 (+3).
Small parties: CEU, EdPV, MC and Vox
The centre-right, liberal CEU is contesting for European party ALDE, which is allied with Dutch D66 or British LIBDEM. Common liberal candidate is Guy Verhofstadt. We predict about 4.0 per cent (-1.1) for CEU. Even MC is supporting Verhofstadt and ALDE. This party which was founded in 2005 would get 5.5 per cent (+5.4) of the votes. Seats for ALDE from Spain: 5 (+3).
Green EdPV is contesting for EU-presidential candidate Ska Keller and José Bové in Spain for the European party EGP. We predict 3 per cent (+0.5) of the valid votes. Even many seperatist EFA-parties support EdPV. Seats for EGP from Spain: 2 (+1).
Conservative Vox has not an European partner yet. Contesting the first time for European elections ever in 2014, we predict 4.5 per cent. Seats for Independent from Spain: 2 (+2).
Combining UPyD and Vox you can see that the independent parties might get 6 (+5) seats of all 54 seats.