EUROPEAN ELECTION PROGNOSIS (ITALY)

Article about Italy election prognosis: scroll down. Thank you for voting! Results of March 2014 EU-presidential poll here.

In less than 50 days we will know exactly about the results of the European Parliament election 2014 #EP2014. Before this we want to introduce you the most important parties and their topical situation.

Typical for Italy, which is the forth most populated country in the EU, is a party system in which parties are disappearing and appearing frequently. Of the six big parties which are forecasted to get more valid votes than they need for negotiating the four-per-cent-threshold, four were founded after the 2009 European election. The Italians will elect 73 members of parliament.

The three big parties: PD, MS5 and FI
Like in France and Britain there are three big parties. Two of them are traditional: centre-right (F: UMP, UK: CONSERVATIVE) and centre-left (F: PS, UK: LABOUR); one of them is populist (F: FN, UK: UKIP) and was founded in the last years or grew more and more popular in the recent years. It is the same in Italy.

The socialist-social-democratic PD is allied with the European party PES. The party of prime minister Matteo Renzi supports the candidat of the PES Martin Schulz. We are predicting 34.0 per cent (+7.9) for Renzi’s party. The party is still popular although it is in government since 2011 and handling with Italy’s financial crises. Allies of PD are e.g. the German SPD or the British Labour-party. Seats for PES from Italy: 27 (+4 compared to today).

The second party is MS5 of comedian Beppe Grillo. The party is populist and has no party-alliance in Europe. Contesting the first time in history the party might get 24.5 per cent. Different from the national election in 2013 (25.5%), Grillo’s party is not on the first position of all parties this time. Seats for Independent from Italy: 19 (+19).

The party FI, which was founded last year, of former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi is supporting christian-democratic, centre-right-candidate Jean-Claude Juncker and his European party EPP in the 2014 European Election. Contesting the first time they might get 20.0 per cent of the votes. In 2009 Berlusconi was contesting with christian-democratic, centre-right PDL, which was dissolved in 2013. Their allies are Merkel’s CDU or the French UMP. Seats for EPP from Italy: 16 (-1).

The three small powers: LN, AET, NCD-UDC
LN is the oldest existing party in Italy. The right-wing-populist party has no ally in Europe. We predict 5.5 per cent (-5.7). So the party will get just half of the 2009 election result. Seats for Independent from Italy: 4 (-3).

The NCR-UDC is contesting for the EPP. European ally is Jean-Claude Juncker’s christian-democratic, centre-right EPP. NCR-UDC has allies like the German CDU/CSU of German prime minister Angela Merkel or Hungarian president Victor Orban’s FIDESZ. We predict 5.5 per cent. The party is contesting the first time for European parliament. Parts of NCR-UDC seperated from Berlusconi’s FI (former PDL), but on European level, they are still working together. Seats for EPP from Italy: 4 (-9).

Socialist-leftist AET of Greek politican Alexis Tsipras will get 4.0 per cent. Supporting Tsipras candidature for the EL for European president AET is contesting the first time. Allies of the party are for example the German DIE LINKE and the Greek SYRIZA. Seats for EL from Italy: 3 (+3).

The smaller parties like IdV, SVP or FDI, which have together 6 seats at the moment, will not get four per cent, so they will not get a seat in European parliament cause of four-per-cent-threshold. PDL and UDC were contesting in 2009, but are dissolved.#EP2014 Italy Poll twittprognosis

If you summarize this one will see that PES will get 27 seats (+6), Independent will get 23 seats (+14) EPP will get 20 seats (-15 cp. 2009 election), EL will get 3 seats (+3). The ALDE will loose all their 7 seats.

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