EUROPEAN ELECTION 2014 PROGNOSIS (United Kingdom)

Article about UK election prognosis: scroll down. Thank you for voting! Results of March 2014 EU-presidential poll here.

In less than 50 days we will know exactly about the results of the European Parliament election 2014 #EP2014. Before this we want to introduce you the most important parties and their topical situation.

Political landslide for UKIP? – The two former big parties Labour and Conservative might be overtaken by the Euro-sceptic party. The third biggest population is the United Kingdom that is voting together with Gibraltar. At the moment chances for leaving the EU next year are nearly 50/50 because of the Independence Referendum next year introduced by conservative prime-minister David Cameron (CONSERVATIVE / ECR). 52,5 per cent of the British want to stay within the EU, 47,5 per cent want to leave.
Who will be number one? – CONSERVATIVE, UKIP or LABOUR?
The race for the first position of the parties will be decided between Labour, that is allied with the socialist-social-democratic PES and the UKIP, that has no European ally. At the moment Labour would win the race for number-one-position and get 32 per cent of the valid votes (source: twittprognosis). It would be a huge gain of 16.3 more than 2009 under the common PES-candidate Martin Schulz, who is also supported by German SPD and French PS. The Norther-Irish counter-part SDLP will get 1 seat (+1). Seats prediction for PES: 24 (+11).
But because of shrinking poll-results it is also possible that right-wing-populist UKIP, that is rising after television debate between LIBERAL-DEMOCRAT Clegg and UKIP-founder and charismatic Farage. At the moment they would get 31.5 per cent (+15.0), which would be the highest results ever in the party’s history. The party is the most important party in Britain fighting the EU.The Norther-Irish counter-parts DUP and SF will get 2 seats together (=). Seats prediction for Indepedent: 22 (+8).
The CONSERVATIVE-member David Cameron who is prime minister since 2010 would remain with huge loss of votes decreasing down to 19 per cent (-8.7). CONSERVATIVE is an ally of the conservative European party ECR, that is also supported by Polish PiS and Czech ODS. They did not nomminate a common presidential candidate argueing that it would legitimate the vision of European super-state if they would nomminate a candidate. The Norther-Irish counter-party UCU-NF will lose their only seat. Seats prediction for ECR: 15 (-11).

The small parties: – LIBERAL DEMOCRATS, GREEN, SNP, PC and BNP
The coalition-partner of prime minister Cameron (CONSERVATIVE) LIBERAL-DEMOCRATS suffers a lot under poor performance also in the last television-debate with UKIP. We predict 9 per cent (-4.8) for the party that is allied with Dutch Democraten66 or Italian IdV under the European ALDE-party. Their common leading-candidate is Guy Verhofstadt. Seats prediction for ALDE: 6 (-5).
The GREEN got 8.1 per cent in 2009 EP election, this time they might score much poorer. We predict 3 per cent for the party that is allied with the German GRÜNE and the French EELV. Their common leading of their European party EGP is co-candidate Ska Keller and co-candidate José Bové. Seats prediction for EGP: 1 (-1).

The Scottish seperatist SNP is very popular in Scotland although it is not clear if Scotland will be an independent country in November 2014. At the moment 48 per cent in Scotland would vote for independence 52 per cent oppose this idea. In UK and Gibraltar the party would get 3 per cent of valid votes (+0.8).
Their Welsh counterpart PC would get 1 per cent (+0.2). PC and SNP are allied in the European party EFA that is dominated by serperatist parties. EFA did not present an own candidate for European election 2014. Seats prediction for EFA: 4 (+1).

The BNP will score a lot weaker because of dominating UKIP. We predict 1 per cent (-5.3). It is allied under European AENM, that has not yet presented a candidate for European election. They might loose both of their two seats.

Posted in UK

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