European Election 2014 Prognosis (France)

Article about French election prognosis: scroll down. Thank you for voting!

In less than 50 days we will know exactly about the results of the European Parliament election 2014 #EP2014. Before this we want to introduce you the most important parties and their topical situation.

The French party system changed since former prime minister Nicolas Sarkozy came to power in 2007: Now there are actually three big parties, another three which are middle-powers and a few small parties. France is the second most important country in the EU and a founding member. The French can elect 74 Members of European Parliament.

EP2014 France

Three big parties: UMP, FN and PS/PRG
The centre-right, christian-democratic UMP would get 27 per cent (-0.9) of the French votes. The party is ally of Angela Merkel’s German CDU/CSU-alliance, ally of the former Berlusconi party FI and also ally of current Greek leader Samaras (ND). Their leading candidate is Jean-Claude Juncker. The name of their party on European level is EPP. Seats prediction for EPP: 29 seats (-1).
The second largest party Front National is partly allied with the parties of the EAF. The right-wing-populist party, that has not nomminated a European leader yet would get 23 per cent on national level in France. Meanwhile in Northern France the FN is much more stronger than in Southern France. It is quite sure that the FN will have a big celebration on May 25 because they might gain 16.7 per cent more than in 2009. Seats prediction for Independent: 12 seats (+9).
The common list of PS and PRG (both are contesting for European party PES with leading candidate Martin Schulz) would get 18 per cent, which is still a good result, if one considers that the party is suffering the heaviest crises since World War II. They would even gain 1.5 per cent compared to the 2009 election although French president Hollande (PS) is the most unpopular president since World War II. Their partners in Europe are the British Labour-Party or the German SPD. Seats prediction for PES: 15 seats (+1).

The three middle-powers: GAUCHE, EELV, MoDem
The Green party of France is called EELV and partner of the German GRÜNE or the British GREEN. They are always strong in European elections in France. They might loose some per cent, so they might get 10 per cent (-6.3). Their European party is the EGP under Ska Keller and the French co-leading-candidate José Bové. Seats prediction for EELV: 9 seats (-5).
The leftist-socialist party GAUCHE can not profit from the poor performance of French socialist-social-democratic candidate Hollande. They might just get 6 per cent (-0.5). Their partners are the German LINKE or the Greek SYRIZA. Together they contest as EL under Alexis Tsipras. Seats prediction for GAUCHE: 5 seats (+-0).
The EDP-party is represented by the euro-sceptic MoDem, that has allies like the German FREIE WÄHLER FW or the Spanish PNV.Their French ally is UDI. Our prognosis predicts currently 5 per cent (-3.5) for both parties together. MoDem and the EDP have endorsed the ALDE-liberal candidate Guy Verhofstadt as their presidential candidate. Seats prediction for MoDem: 4 seats (-2).

Small parties: LO, NPA, ND, DLR
The communist LO, that has no official European party, is rated at 1 per cent (-0.2) in our prognosis. The socialist NPA is rated at 3 per cent (-1.9). Even NPA has no official European partner. It is the same with the social-democratic ND which was founded in 2013. Altough they are just a few months old they might get 3 per cent. All these leftist parties profit from the weak PS-position.
On the right side we have DLR which is ally with the EUDemocrats, the smallest European party, which is an ensemble of small parties all over Europe. We predict 1.5 per cent (-0.2) for DLR. They have not yet nomminated an official presidential candidate. No of the small parties will get a seat in European Parliament Election 2014.

Summarized France will send 29 MEP for the EPP (-1 compared to #EP2009), 15 for PES (+1), 9 for EGP (-5), 5 for EL (=), 12 for different independent parties (+9), and 4 (-2) for EDP.


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