Article about German election prognosis: scroll down. Thank you for voting!
In less than 50 days we will know exactly about the results of the European Parliament election 2014 #EP2014. Before this we want to introduce you the most important parties and their topical situation.
Today we start with the most influential country in Europe: Germany. 61.4 million people will vote for 96 seats. Due the threshold of five per cent was abolished for EP-elections, it is easier for small parties to win a seat.
The German party system is compared to other countries in Europe quite immovable:
The catch-all-party-ally of CDU and CSU (both EPP)
There is the most influential and dominant party of prime minister Angela Merkel: the CDU. This party belongs to the centre-right, christian-democratic European Peoples Party EPP with its leader Jean-Claude Juncker. Logically Merkel and the CDU are allied with the French UMP or the Spanish PP. Since decades Merkel’s CDU is an ally of the Bavarian centre-right, christian-democratic CSU. They contest together in the #EP2014. We predict 38.5 per cent (+0.6) for both parties together. In the national election 2013 in Germany Merkel’s parties CDU and CSU performed quite well thanks to a good economic situation in Germany at the moment and the weak centre-right, liberal party FDP. 37 seats for EPP.
The parliamentary middle-power SPD/PES
Since 2013 the socialist-social-democratic party in Germany SPD is part of Merkel’s CDU-SPD-CSU. Since ten years the party gets between 20 and 30 per cent in polls after former prime minister Gerhard Schröder (SPD, in office: 1998-2005) introduced social reforms (“Agenda 2010”), which were quite unpopular, although economists say that these reforms were the reason for Germany’s economic performing well the last years. It is allied with the French socialist-social-democratic PS and the British Labour-Party. With other parties together they form the PES under their German election-leader Martin Schulz, who is also part of the German SPD. We predict 26.5 per cent (+5.7) for the party. 26 seats for PES.
The small parliamentary parties of GRÜNE/EGP and LINKE/EL
In European elections the German green party GRÜNE, which is partner-organization of the British GREEN or the French EELV, they are always stronger than in usual elections. Last time they got 12.1 per cent, this time we predict 9.5 per cent. After the poor result in the national election in September the party is still in a recovering process. The leading co-candidate Ska Keller of the European Green Party EGP is member of the German GRÜNE. 9 seats for EGP.
The party LINKE is a leftist-socialist power and the leading power of German opposition on national level. We predict 7.5 per cent for the #EP2014, which is the same level like in 2009. In some Eastern parts of Germany LINKE is a catch-all-party. Under their common leading candidate Alexis Tsipras LINKE is contesting of the European Left EL. 7 seats for EL.
The bigger non-parliamentary powers of FDP/ALDE and AfD
The centre-right, liberal party FDP is part of the ALDE under their common candidate Guy Verhofstadt and in its most severe crises since it was founded in 1949 after failing to re-enter the national parliament for the first time in the 2013 national election. After getting a new leadership, we still can not see a trend-change for the part. The party might just get poor 2.5 per cent (-8.5) in the #EP2014. 2 seats for ALDE.
The AfD is an eurosceptical, conservative party which failed to enter the German national parliament with 4.7 per cent (5.0% needed). This time the party might get 7 per cent, although they are contesting for the first time for European election after being founded in 2013, just shortly before the national election. The party has no ally in Europe; the content of the party-programme is quite simmilar to the ECR-parties in Europe. 7 seats for Independent.
The non-parliamentary middle-powers of PIRATEN, NPD and FREIE WÄHLER FW
Even those parties might be sure about one or two seats in the European Parliament from 2014 on. All of them are successful locally, but not all over Germany. For the PIRATEN we predict 2 per cent (+1.1). Their ally is the PPEU under leading candidate Amelia Andersdotter, which summarizes all European pirate parties. 2 seats for PPEU.
The nationalist NPD is not part of an official European party. They might get 1 per cent (2009: DVU got 0.4 per cent). 1 seat for Independent.
The FREIE WÄHLER FW are successful in south-eastern Germany. We predict 1.5 per cent (-0.2). They are allies of EDP like the French MoDem. They support the ALDE-candidate Guy Verhofstadt. 1 seat for EDP.
Small non-parliamentary parties that might get one seat
The animal-welfare party Tierschutzpartei, the green-conservative ÖDP, the right-wing-populist Republikaner, and the satire-party PARTEI might win a seat. It is quite sure that ÖDP and Tierschutzpartei will get a seat, it is not sure for Republikaner and PARTEI. All of them do not have allies in Europe. each 1 seat for Independent, which is 4 seats for Independent.
Summarized Germany will send 37 MEP for the EPP (-5 compared to #EP2009), 26 for PES (+3), 9 for EGP (-5), 7 for EL (-1), 12 for different independent parties (+12), 2 for ALDE (-10), 2 for PPEU (+2) and 1 for EDP (+1).