EUROPEAN ELECTION PROGNOSIS (ITALY)

Article about Italy election prognosis: scroll down. Thank you for voting! Results of March 2014 EU-presidential poll here.

In less than 50 days we will know exactly about the results of the European Parliament election 2014 #EP2014. Before this we want to introduce you the most important parties and their topical situation.

Typical for Italy, which is the forth most populated country in the EU, is a party system in which parties are disappearing and appearing frequently. Of the six big parties which are forecasted to get more valid votes than they need for negotiating the four-per-cent-threshold, four were founded after the 2009 European election. The Italians will elect 73 members of parliament.

The three big parties: PD, MS5 and FI
Like in France and Britain there are three big parties. Two of them are traditional: centre-right (F: UMP, UK: CONSERVATIVE) and centre-left (F: PS, UK: LABOUR); one of them is populist (F: FN, UK: UKIP) and was founded in the last years or grew more and more popular in the recent years. It is the same in Italy.

The socialist-social-democratic PD is allied with the European party PES. The party of prime minister Matteo Renzi supports the candidat of the PES Martin Schulz. We are predicting 34.0 per cent (+7.9) for Renzi’s party. The party is still popular although it is in government since 2011 and handling with Italy’s financial crises. Allies of PD are e.g. the German SPD or the British Labour-party. Seats for PES from Italy: 27 (+4 compared to today).

The second party is MS5 of comedian Beppe Grillo. The party is populist and has no party-alliance in Europe. Contesting the first time in history the party might get 24.5 per cent. Different from the national election in 2013 (25.5%), Grillo’s party is not on the first position of all parties this time. Seats for Independent from Italy: 19 (+19).

The party FI, which was founded last year, of former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi is supporting christian-democratic, centre-right-candidate Jean-Claude Juncker and his European party EPP in the 2014 European Election. Contesting the first time they might get 20.0 per cent of the votes. In 2009 Berlusconi was contesting with christian-democratic, centre-right PDL, which was dissolved in 2013. Their allies are Merkel’s CDU or the French UMP. Seats for EPP from Italy: 16 (-1).

The three small powers: LN, AET, NCD-UDC
LN is the oldest existing party in Italy. The right-wing-populist party has no ally in Europe. We predict 5.5 per cent (-5.7). So the party will get just half of the 2009 election result. Seats for Independent from Italy: 4 (-3).

The NCR-UDC is contesting for the EPP. European ally is Jean-Claude Juncker’s christian-democratic, centre-right EPP. NCR-UDC has allies like the German CDU/CSU of German prime minister Angela Merkel or Hungarian president Victor Orban’s FIDESZ. We predict 5.5 per cent. The party is contesting the first time for European parliament. Parts of NCR-UDC seperated from Berlusconi’s FI (former PDL), but on European level, they are still working together. Seats for EPP from Italy: 4 (-9).

Socialist-leftist AET of Greek politican Alexis Tsipras will get 4.0 per cent. Supporting Tsipras candidature for the EL for European president AET is contesting the first time. Allies of the party are for example the German DIE LINKE and the Greek SYRIZA. Seats for EL from Italy: 3 (+3).

The smaller parties like IdV, SVP or FDI, which have together 6 seats at the moment, will not get four per cent, so they will not get a seat in European parliament cause of four-per-cent-threshold. PDL and UDC were contesting in 2009, but are dissolved.#EP2014 Italy Poll twittprognosis

If you summarize this one will see that PES will get 27 seats (+6), Independent will get 23 seats (+14) EPP will get 20 seats (-15 cp. 2009 election), EL will get 3 seats (+3). The ALDE will loose all their 7 seats.

EUROPEAN ELECTION 2014 PROGNOSIS (United Kingdom)

Article about UK election prognosis: scroll down. Thank you for voting! Results of March 2014 EU-presidential poll here.

In less than 50 days we will know exactly about the results of the European Parliament election 2014 #EP2014. Before this we want to introduce you the most important parties and their topical situation.

Political landslide for UKIP? – The two former big parties Labour and Conservative might be overtaken by the Euro-sceptic party. The third biggest population is the United Kingdom that is voting together with Gibraltar. At the moment chances for leaving the EU next year are nearly 50/50 because of the Independence Referendum next year introduced by conservative prime-minister David Cameron (CONSERVATIVE / ECR). 52,5 per cent of the British want to stay within the EU, 47,5 per cent want to leave.
Who will be number one? – CONSERVATIVE, UKIP or LABOUR?
The race for the first position of the parties will be decided between Labour, that is allied with the socialist-social-democratic PES and the UKIP, that has no European ally. At the moment Labour would win the race for number-one-position and get 32 per cent of the valid votes (source: twittprognosis). It would be a huge gain of 16.3 more than 2009 under the common PES-candidate Martin Schulz, who is also supported by German SPD and French PS. The Norther-Irish counter-part SDLP will get 1 seat (+1). Seats prediction for PES: 24 (+11).
But because of shrinking poll-results it is also possible that right-wing-populist UKIP, that is rising after television debate between LIBERAL-DEMOCRAT Clegg and UKIP-founder and charismatic Farage. At the moment they would get 31.5 per cent (+15.0), which would be the highest results ever in the party’s history. The party is the most important party in Britain fighting the EU.The Norther-Irish counter-parts DUP and SF will get 2 seats together (=). Seats prediction for Indepedent: 22 (+8).
The CONSERVATIVE-member David Cameron who is prime minister since 2010 would remain with huge loss of votes decreasing down to 19 per cent (-8.7). CONSERVATIVE is an ally of the conservative European party ECR, that is also supported by Polish PiS and Czech ODS. They did not nomminate a common presidential candidate argueing that it would legitimate the vision of European super-state if they would nomminate a candidate. The Norther-Irish counter-party UCU-NF will lose their only seat. Seats prediction for ECR: 15 (-11).

The small parties: – LIBERAL DEMOCRATS, GREEN, SNP, PC and BNP
The coalition-partner of prime minister Cameron (CONSERVATIVE) LIBERAL-DEMOCRATS suffers a lot under poor performance also in the last television-debate with UKIP. We predict 9 per cent (-4.8) for the party that is allied with Dutch Democraten66 or Italian IdV under the European ALDE-party. Their common leading-candidate is Guy Verhofstadt. Seats prediction for ALDE: 6 (-5).
The GREEN got 8.1 per cent in 2009 EP election, this time they might score much poorer. We predict 3 per cent for the party that is allied with the German GRÜNE and the French EELV. Their common leading of their European party EGP is co-candidate Ska Keller and co-candidate José Bové. Seats prediction for EGP: 1 (-1).

The Scottish seperatist SNP is very popular in Scotland although it is not clear if Scotland will be an independent country in November 2014. At the moment 48 per cent in Scotland would vote for independence 52 per cent oppose this idea. In UK and Gibraltar the party would get 3 per cent of valid votes (+0.8).
Their Welsh counterpart PC would get 1 per cent (+0.2). PC and SNP are allied in the European party EFA that is dominated by serperatist parties. EFA did not present an own candidate for European election 2014. Seats prediction for EFA: 4 (+1).

The BNP will score a lot weaker because of dominating UKIP. We predict 1 per cent (-5.3). It is allied under European AENM, that has not yet presented a candidate for European election. They might loose both of their two seats.

European Election 2014 Prognosis (France)

Article about French election prognosis: scroll down. Thank you for voting!

In less than 50 days we will know exactly about the results of the European Parliament election 2014 #EP2014. Before this we want to introduce you the most important parties and their topical situation.

The French party system changed since former prime minister Nicolas Sarkozy came to power in 2007: Now there are actually three big parties, another three which are middle-powers and a few small parties. France is the second most important country in the EU and a founding member. The French can elect 74 Members of European Parliament.

EP2014 France

Three big parties: UMP, FN and PS/PRG
The centre-right, christian-democratic UMP would get 27 per cent (-0.9) of the French votes. The party is ally of Angela Merkel’s German CDU/CSU-alliance, ally of the former Berlusconi party FI and also ally of current Greek leader Samaras (ND). Their leading candidate is Jean-Claude Juncker. The name of their party on European level is EPP. Seats prediction for EPP: 29 seats (-1).
The second largest party Front National is partly allied with the parties of the EAF. The right-wing-populist party, that has not nomminated a European leader yet would get 23 per cent on national level in France. Meanwhile in Northern France the FN is much more stronger than in Southern France. It is quite sure that the FN will have a big celebration on May 25 because they might gain 16.7 per cent more than in 2009. Seats prediction for Independent: 12 seats (+9).
The common list of PS and PRG (both are contesting for European party PES with leading candidate Martin Schulz) would get 18 per cent, which is still a good result, if one considers that the party is suffering the heaviest crises since World War II. They would even gain 1.5 per cent compared to the 2009 election although French president Hollande (PS) is the most unpopular president since World War II. Their partners in Europe are the British Labour-Party or the German SPD. Seats prediction for PES: 15 seats (+1).

The three middle-powers: GAUCHE, EELV, MoDem
The Green party of France is called EELV and partner of the German GRÜNE or the British GREEN. They are always strong in European elections in France. They might loose some per cent, so they might get 10 per cent (-6.3). Their European party is the EGP under Ska Keller and the French co-leading-candidate José Bové. Seats prediction for EELV: 9 seats (-5).
The leftist-socialist party GAUCHE can not profit from the poor performance of French socialist-social-democratic candidate Hollande. They might just get 6 per cent (-0.5). Their partners are the German LINKE or the Greek SYRIZA. Together they contest as EL under Alexis Tsipras. Seats prediction for GAUCHE: 5 seats (+-0).
The EDP-party is represented by the euro-sceptic MoDem, that has allies like the German FREIE WÄHLER FW or the Spanish PNV.Their French ally is UDI. Our prognosis predicts currently 5 per cent (-3.5) for both parties together. MoDem and the EDP have endorsed the ALDE-liberal candidate Guy Verhofstadt as their presidential candidate. Seats prediction for MoDem: 4 seats (-2).

Small parties: LO, NPA, ND, DLR
The communist LO, that has no official European party, is rated at 1 per cent (-0.2) in our prognosis. The socialist NPA is rated at 3 per cent (-1.9). Even NPA has no official European partner. It is the same with the social-democratic ND which was founded in 2013. Altough they are just a few months old they might get 3 per cent. All these leftist parties profit from the weak PS-position.
On the right side we have DLR which is ally with the EUDemocrats, the smallest European party, which is an ensemble of small parties all over Europe. We predict 1.5 per cent (-0.2) for DLR. They have not yet nomminated an official presidential candidate. No of the small parties will get a seat in European Parliament Election 2014.

Summarized France will send 29 MEP for the EPP (-1 compared to #EP2009), 15 for PES (+1), 9 for EGP (-5), 5 for EL (=), 12 for different independent parties (+9), and 4 (-2) for EDP.

European Election 2014 Prognosis (Germany)

 

Article about German election prognosis: scroll down. Thank you for voting!

In less than 50 days we will know exactly about the results of the European Parliament election 2014 #EP2014. Before this we want to introduce you the most important parties and their topical situation.

UnbenannEP2014 Germany

Today we start with the most influential country in Europe: Germany. 61.4 million people will vote for 96 seats. Due the threshold of five per cent was abolished for EP-elections, it is easier for small parties to win a seat.

The German party system is compared to other countries in Europe quite immovable:

 

The catch-all-party-ally of CDU and CSU (both EPP)
There is the most influential and dominant party of prime minister Angela Merkel: the CDU. This party belongs to the centre-right, christian-democratic European Peoples Party EPP with its leader Jean-Claude Juncker. Logically Merkel and the CDU are allied with the French UMP or the Spanish PP. Since decades Merkel’s CDU is an ally of the Bavarian centre-right, christian-democratic CSU. They contest together in the #EP2014. We predict 38.5 per cent (+0.6) for both parties together. In the national election 2013 in Germany Merkel’s parties CDU and CSU performed quite well thanks to a good economic situation in Germany at the moment and the weak centre-right, liberal party FDP. 37 seats for EPP.

The parliamentary middle-power SPD/PES
Since 2013 the socialist-social-democratic party in Germany SPD is part of Merkel’s CDU-SPD-CSU. Since ten years the party gets between 20 and 30 per cent in polls after former prime minister Gerhard Schröder (SPD, in office: 1998-2005) introduced social reforms (“Agenda 2010″), which were quite unpopular, although economists say that these reforms were the reason for Germany’s economic performing well the last years. It is allied with the French socialist-social-democratic PS and the British Labour-Party. With other parties together they form the PES under their German election-leader Martin Schulz, who is also part of the German SPD. We predict 26.5 per cent (+5.7) for the party. 26 seats for PES.

The small parliamentary parties of GRÜNE/EGP and LINKE/EL
In European elections the German green party GRÜNE, which is partner-organization of the British GREEN or the French EELV, they are always stronger than in usual elections. Last time they got 12.1 per cent, this time we predict 9.5 per cent. After the poor result in the national election in September the party is still in a recovering process. The leading co-candidate Ska Keller of the European Green Party EGP is member of the German GRÜNE. 9 seats for EGP.

The party LINKE is a leftist-socialist power and the leading power of German opposition on national level. We predict 7.5 per cent for the #EP2014, which is the same level like in 2009. In some Eastern parts of Germany LINKE is a catch-all-party. Under their common leading candidate Alexis Tsipras LINKE is contesting of the European Left EL. 7 seats for EL.

The bigger non-parliamentary powers of FDP/ALDE and AfD
The centre-right, liberal party FDP is part of the ALDE under their common candidate Guy Verhofstadt and in its most severe crises since it was founded in 1949 after failing to re-enter the national parliament for the first time in the 2013 national election. After getting a new leadership, we still can not see a trend-change for the part. The party might just get poor 2.5 per cent (-8.5) in the #EP2014. 2 seats for ALDE.

The AfD is an eurosceptical, conservative party which failed to enter the German national parliament with 4.7 per cent (5.0% needed). This time the party might get 7 per cent, although they are contesting for the first time for European election after being founded in 2013, just shortly before the national election. The party has no ally in Europe; the content of the party-programme is quite simmilar to the ECR-parties in Europe. 7 seats for Independent.

The non-parliamentary middle-powers of PIRATEN, NPD and FREIE WÄHLER FW
Even those parties might be sure about one or two seats in the European Parliament from 2014 on. All of them are successful locally, but not all over Germany. For the PIRATEN we predict 2 per cent (+1.1). Their ally is the PPEU under leading candidate Amelia Andersdotter, which summarizes all European pirate parties. 2 seats for PPEU.

The nationalist NPD is not part of an official European party. They might get 1 per cent (2009: DVU got 0.4 per cent). 1 seat for Independent.

The FREIE WÄHLER FW are successful in south-eastern Germany. We predict 1.5 per cent (-0.2). They are allies of EDP like the French MoDem. They support the ALDE-candidate Guy Verhofstadt. 1 seat for EDP.

Small non-parliamentary parties that might get one seat
The animal-welfare party Tierschutzpartei, the green-conservative ÖDP, the right-wing-populist Republikaner, and the satire-party PARTEI might win a seat. It is quite sure that ÖDP and Tierschutzpartei will get a seat, it is not sure for Republikaner and PARTEI. All of them do not have allies in Europe. each 1 seat for Independent, which is 4 seats for Independent.

Summarized Germany will send 37 MEP for the EPP (-5 compared to #EP2009), 26 for PES (+3), 9 for EGP (-5), 7 for EL (-1), 12 for different independent parties (+12), 2 for ALDE (-10), 2 for PPEU (+2) and 1 for EDP (+1).

EU-Precidency Poll April 2014

Vote here for your favorite EU-presidential candidate! And see the results from March 2014 here.

Former MELD-President Niki Tzavela told twittprognosis on 3 April that she would not run for EU-presidency. She was replaced in our voting-list by Jacek Wlosowicz who is the most potential candidate for MELD.

European Presidential Vote / March 2014

European Presidential Vote / March 2014

twittprognosis was asking 137,528 people all over Europe about their favorite EU-presidential candidate from the March 1 to April 1.
After the favorite candidate Mario Monti (Independent) dropped out of the presidential race in March and endorsed Guy Verhofstadt (Liberals-ALDE), Martin Schulz (Socialist-PES) is now in the leading position. He reaches 38.0 per cent. He gets 16.3 per cent more than in the last month.
The green candidate Ska Keller (EGP) from Germany reaches the second position with 15.7 per cent (+1.2). The online-primary was quite successful in mobilizing the Green sympathisants.
Just a few votes behind Keller Alexis Tsipras (Left-EL) gets 15.5 per cent, mainly from the southern countries in Europe and France. He profits from the Monti-drop-out by 6.2 per cent gain.
The centre-right candidate Jean-Claude Juncker scores at 13.3 per cent, which is an improve of 6.2 per cent compared to March.
Verhofstadt (Liberals-ALDE) was endorsed by former favorite candidate Monti, but he is still suffering poor results. He gets 6.9 per cent (+2.9) in the March 2014 poll.
The far-right candidate Niki Tzavelda scores poorly at 2.0 per cent (+0.6). The far-right in Europe is gaining ground, like the local election results of the far-right in France shows, but they are not united enough to support one candidate effectively.
Furthermore a new contestant was written into the option “others”. It is Amelia Andersdotter, who is the contestent for the informal Pirate Party in the EU PPEU. She gathers 3.1 per cent (+3.1) just days after her nommination.
Other candidates who reach all together 5.5 per cent (-36.4) get less than one per cent of all valid votes.

EU-Presidency: Poll Feb 2014

The EU-wide online twittprognosis-poll in February 2014 for the presidency in Europe shows that most people would favor former Italian prime minister Mario Monti (Independent) as EU-president. 32,0 percent of all Europeans would vote for him. Shortly after the poll was conducted, Monti endorsed ALDE-candidate Verhofstadt.

Martin Schulz (PES-Socialists) is on the second position with 21,7 per cent. His green contestant Ska Keller from Germany gets 14,5 per cent, which is quite a good result for the small green faction. She was elected by a online-primary which was accessable for all European citizens. Alexis Tsipras from Greece (EL-Left) gets 9,3 percent. Jean-Claude Juncker would get 7,1 percent which is quite a poor result for the EPP/Centre-Right. Guy Verhofstadt (ALDE-Liberals) gets 4,0 per cent, while the far-right candidate Niki Tzevela scores the poorest: Just 1,4 percent would vote for him. The poll interviewed 567.951 people across the EU from February 1 to February 28.   

Who would you vote for if there were presidential elections in Europe on the upcoming sunday (March 2014 Poll)?

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